It may sound tacky for me to post this on Inauguration Day, although it’s very fitting considering who is being sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. Heck, I found out that the BBC plans on carrying this event live because this newspaper in Scotland has this hilarious description of the event in its TV listing.

I know I’m going out on a limb here by making this prediction. But I think it’s an educated prediction that I’m qualified to make because I graduated from the University of Maryland with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a minor in Government and Politics and I try to keep up with the news as much as possible. I am well familiar with Donald Trump because I’m old enough to remember when he published his first book (The Art of the Deal) and he had the news media portray him as some kind of a business genius. I also remember the first of his multiple bankruptcies. I even watched the first few seasons of both The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice. I still remember that one episode of his reality show where one of the challenges took place at the same Trump Taj Mahal (which The Donald hyped on that episode as being “state of the art”) that filed for bankruptcy just a few weeks after that episode aired. (So much for “state of the art.” LOL!)

Based on what I know about Trump and U.S. government in general, I not only believe that President Donald Trump will not last past his first term in office but there’s a chance that he may be out of office before his first term is up. Here are the reasons why I feel this way, based entirely on facts.

1. Donald Trump has never held any kind of public office before in his life. He has spent his entire career in the private sector where he never had to deal with things like checks and balances or negotiating compromises with lawmakers. To instantly become President of the United States with no public office background will involve a much steeper learning curve than usual for The Donald.

2. Donald Trump has only worked for his family-owned businesses. His first job out of college was with one of his family’s businesses and his father was the ultimate boss, unlike the vast majority of Americans who have to work for bosses who aren’t related to them. Being President of the United States means that he’ll have to learn to deal with Congress, lobbyists, and a whole bunch of other people who aren’t family members and that’ll take a huge adjustment on his part. He’s also going to have to adjust to not always getting his own way, unlike being the head of the Trump Organization, because of the whole checks and balances thing that’s built into the Constitution.

3. There are people who are openly questioning whether Donald Trump is even a legitimate president before he even takes the Oath of Office. Usually when a new person is elected president, everyone, including the opposition, have traditionally provided respect for the person until a few months after Inauguration Day. Considering the fact that Trump’s approval ratings have sank to a historic low before he has even begun occupying the Oval Office is very telling. Unless Trump can focus on doing what it takes to earn the respect of all Americans, and not just white heterosexual men, he will not last long on the job.

4. Donald Trump seems reluctant to live in the White House. He somehow didn’t realize that moving to Washington, DC and living in the White House is one of the requirements of being President of the United States. There’s no way he can govern from Trump Tower in New York City since everybody else that’s even remotely connected to the Federal Government is in Washington, DC. Heck, he can’t even live in his own Trump International Hotel in DC while he’s in office. Nope, he has to live in the White House and that can’t be negotiated.

5. He was the subject of a civil lawsuit over his failed Trump University until he settled it soon after he became president-elect. This settled lawsuit could give Congress a way to possibly look into criminal charges, thus paving the way for impeachment.

6. There are his recorded admission that he had forced women to kiss them while saying that he had to grab them by the pussy along with the numerous allegations of sexual abuse against Donald Trump ranging from sexual harassment to rape. One woman dropped her lawsuit over the allegation that Donald Trump raped her when she was 13. But it has been replaced by a defamation lawsuit that has just been filed by one of his accusers, a former Apprentice contestant named Summer Zervos. And that’s not to mention the incredibly disturbing things he has said about his own daughter, Ivanka, which The Daily Show has compiled into Don’t Forget: Donald Trump Wants to Bang His Own Daughter and Again, Don’t Forget: Donald Trump Wants to Bang His Own Daughter (which is why so many eyebrows were raised in DC when reports surfaced that Ivanka will serve as First Lady instead of The Donald’s own wife, Melania). Trump’s past behavior could be a White House sex scandal waiting to happen, especially if he does anything to any of the female White House staffers and interns, which could possibly bring on impeachment.

7. There is the reported conflict of interest between the new President Trump and his continued running of the Trump Organization, which could be another way for Congress to consider impeaching him.

8. Donald Trump is also prone to having major Twitter meltdowns, which could easily bite him in the ass at some point in the future. There are already questions about whether those Twitter tweets he continues to issue around the clock are an indication of some kind of mental health condition that The Donald is suffering from, as explained in this video.

9. There is the speculation about Donald Trump’s very cozy relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Recently BuzzFeed posted this report claiming that the Russians have some embarrassing evidence about The Donald that they could potentially use against him. This could cause Americans to wonder if Donald Trump really has the interests of the United States in mind and would his relationship with Russia be construed as treason.

10. While the Congress will be dominated by Republicans for at least the next two years, there are plenty of Republicans who aren’t so enthusiastic over President Trump (especially those who supported Trump’s opponents in the Republican primaries). More recently, Republican lawmakers have voiced disdain after Trump went on Twitter to announce that he has more faith in Wikileaks founder Julian Assange than in U.S. intelligence agencies. If Trump does things that further alienates his own party, I can imagine that they would be willing to throw him under the impeachment bus in the hopes of being replaced by President Mike Pence, who’s way more palatable to the right-wing than Trump is.

11. If President Trump really screws up his first two years in office, there’s a strong chance that progressive people can be elected to Congress in the 2018 mid-term elections—people who are more likely to oppose and obstruct President Trump every step of the way. This might give President Trump an incentive to either resign or decide not to seek a second term.

While there’s a part of me that hopes that President Trump will rise to the challenge of being in the Oval Office and actually do something for the large part of the population who are unemployed or underemployed, I am not going to hold my breath on this. I predict that one of four scenarios will happen to President Trump.

1. President Trump resigns halfway through his term in office.

2. President Trump gets impeached by Congress and removed from office halfway through his term.

3. President Trump gets assassinated. Which wouldn’t be a major stretch since he has gone out of his way to insult women, LGBTQ people, ex-POWs, disabled people, Muslims, and Latinos on the campaign trail. I could easily see some unhinged person deciding to take matters into his/her own hands and go after President Trump with a gun. I’m not the only one who wouldn’t be surprised if President Trump gets assassinated.

4. President Trump simply dies in office. At 70 years old, he is considered to be the oldest person ever elected to the nation’s highest office. Being President of the United States is the highest stress job there is and it tends to rapidly age whoever occupies the Oval Office at a faster rate than usual. It’s possible that this new job will literally kill him.

5. President Trump either decides not to seek a second term or he is defeated for re-election in 2020.

The only downside to the first four scenarios is that Mike Pence would become president and he’s a guy who’s not only an extremist when it comes to women’s reproductive health but he’s also very anti-LGBTQ rights. He’s less of a buffoon than Donald Trump, which makes him really scary. The best thing we can all hope for is the fifth scenario where a new President and Vice President can be elected and the Executive Branch can begin 2021 with a totally clean slate.

I would really love to be proven wrong about my low opinions of President Trump and he turns out to be the best president since FDR. I would be ecstatic if that happens. But I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

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